Federal election live: Labor one seat away from majority, Barnaby Joyce to be challenged for Nationals leadership

Which seats are still in doubt?

We’re nearly a full week out from last Saturday’s federal election, and there are still four seats still in doubt across the country.

Labor’s tally is currently at 75, one seat shy of forming a majority government where they can govern in their own right.

ABC’s Chief Elections Analyst Antony Green explains just how close some of these remaining seats are.

Brisbane, QLD — Greens ahead

The count in Brisbane will exclude the four lowest polling candidates first. This will determine an order for the final three candidates, LNP, Labor and Green. The preference count shown here uses a preference estimate for the first four exclusions provided to me by scrutineers that is running at 35.1% to Greens, 15.6% to Labor and 49.3% LNP.

This currently puts the Greens ahead of Labor during the distribution of preferences and results in the Greens going on to defeat the LNP. The result may flip to Labor winning if further counting changes the balance of Labor versus Green first preferences or alters the exclusion order during the distribution of preferences. 

Deakin, VIC — Liberals likely

Michael Sukkar leads by 1,032 votes.

Gilmore, NSW — Liberals ahead

Andrew Constance leads by 286 votes.

Macnamara, VIC — Labor likely

Scrutineer figures based on an AEC preference throw for the five lowest polling candidates produce preference flows of 18% to Labor, 34% to the Greens and 48% to Liberal. Applying those puts the final three candidates within a thousand votes of each other. If the Green or Liberal candidates are third, Labor wins. If the Labor candidates is third, the Greens win. For this reason Macnamara is being left in doubt.

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