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The 14 seats at risk for the coalition in this analysis are Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Braddon, Reid, Swan, Longman, Higgins, Leichhardt, Robertson, Casey, Dickson, Deakin and Brisbane.
However, the threat to the coalition is greater when the swings are applied in each state.
The coalition won the last election with a national majority of 41 percent, but gained 34 percent support in the three Resolve polls from January to early April.
Coalition primaries have also suffered in South Australia, from 41 percent in the last election to 34 percent in the new quarterly analysis, a sign that the government could struggle to replace Boothby’s main fringe seat in the Adelaide suburbs. retain.
Significant blows to the coalition have also been seen in NSW, down from 43 per cent in election to 36 per cent in the three surveys this year, and Victoria, down from 39 per cent to 32 per cent on the same comparison.
Morrison enters the campaign with a regional funding package of $7.1 billion in the federal budget to support major projects outside of Sydney and Melbourne in hopes of gaining ground from Labour.
With Labor insiders convinced to gain ground in key seats around Perth, the Resolve Political Monitor’s quarterly analysis suggests there are good reasons for the party’s ambition to take seats from the liberals in the west.
Labor has raised its national primary vote from 33 percent in the last election to 36 percent in Resolve’s new quarterly analysis, but the changes in NSW (from 35 to 36 percent) and Victoria (from 37 to 36 percent) are within the margin of error. .
While Labor’s primary vote in Queensland is lower than the party’s support in other states, it rose from 27 percent in the election to 31 percent in the quarterly analysis, a trend that could help the party win at least one seat. win if matched. at the election.
Labor is targeting Longman’s northern seat in Brisbane, which is held by the Liberal National Party at 3.3 percent, as well as Leichhardt’s northern seat in Queensland, which is held by the LNP at 4.2 percent.
To win the north Brisbane seat, Dickson, held by Defense Secretary Peter Dutton, or the Brisbane inner city seat, held by Assistant Environment Minister Trevor Evans, swings of 4.6, respectively percent and 4.9 percent.
Labor’s primary vote in WA has risen from 30 percent in the election to 43 percent in the new analysis, enough to install party candidates in seats including Swan (Liberal-owned at 3.2 percent), Pearce (the seat has been vacated by former Attorney General Christian Porter and held by the Liberals at 5.2 percent) and Hasluck (held by Ken Wyatt at 5.9 percent).
However, the findings for Western Australia should be treated with caution, as the state results were based on 347 respondents to ensure the survey reflected a broader national population. There is a higher margin of error for results in states with smaller populations.
The move to Labor in Western Australia appears to be big enough in the new quarterly survey to suggest that the party Tangney (owned by Special Secretary Ben Morton at 9.5 percent) and Canning (owned by aide Defense Secretary Andrew Hastie with 11.6 percent) could win. percent) and Moore (owned by backbencher Ian Goodenough at 11.6 percent).
Tangney hasn’t had a Labor member since 1984, Canning hasn’t had one since 2001, and Moore hasn’t had one since 1990.
Because the sample size is larger than the monthly Resolve Political Monitor, the margin of error in the quarterly analysis is 1.4 percent for the national primary vote. The margin of error was 2.5 percent in the most recent monthly survey, published on April 5.
But the margin of error for the results from Western Australia is 5.3 percent and for the results in South Australia is 6.2 percent.