Winner, first goal-kicker, and Norm Smith betting markets

The AFL grand final is always a massive day for punters, and this year’s decider between the Geelong Cats and Sydney Swans, once again at the MCG promises to be as big as ever.

Here’s your guide to the odds for some of the major markets on the AFL’s season finale. Please note all odds are as of Friday, September 23 at 2pm (AEST), and are thanks to our good friends at PlayUp.

As always, remember to gamble responsibly if you are having a bet on the grand final.

Head-to-head winner
The Cats have been flag favourites for a while now, and that’s holding true heading into the grand final, with Geelong $1.49 to hoist the premiership cup on Saturday afternoon.

The Swans are out at $2.70, but they don’t mind being underdogs – they are one of only two teams this finals series to have won a match playing away from home, having beaten Melbourne at the MCG in the qualifying final as outsiders.

The line is paying $1.91 at -13.5, slightly up from last year – but it’s still enough to suggest this match could genuinely swing either way.

Norm Smith Medallist
Punters took one look at Patrick Dangerfield’s incredible performance in the Cats’ preliminary final win and backed him en masse to lead Geelong to premiership glory.

The champion was below his best in his only previous grand final, a loss to Richmond in 2020; but this time with no Dustin Martin to contend with, he’s the outright favourite to add a Norm Smith Medal to his list of accomplishments at $7.

While last year four Demons and Bulldogs, including eventual winner and starting favourite Christian Petracca, had odds of under $10, this year, Dangerfield stands alone. Up next is star Cat Jeremy Cameron at $10, sharing the stage with Swans co-captain and midfield ace Callum Mills.

Slightly further back is Luke Parker at $11 – he was the sub in Sydney’s 2012 premiership win, and has stated he’d like nothing more than to claim a second from a full match this time. He was also one of the favourites for the medal heading into the 2014 grand final, though that day the Swans were towelled up by Hawthorn.

As for the outsiders, well, who doesn’t love a good story? If you’re the sentimental type, then backing one of Tyson Stengle ($34) or Paddy McCartin ($51) to cap off remarkable grand final appearances with a Norm Smith win as well might be your go.

Check out the full list of Norm Smith Medal odds, thanks to PlayUp.

First goalscorer
He’s second-favourite for Norm Smith honours, but Jeremy Cameron is the clubhouse leader among punters to do what he did in 2019 for GWS, and kick the first goal of the grand final, listed at $8.

As you’d expect, Cats teammate Tom Hawkins is close behind at $8.50, before, of course, Lance Franklin. Given the man’s appetite for the big stage, his $9 odds for the first go could well be a bargain.

At the other end of the odds, Cats skipper Joel Selwood is way out at $41 for the first goal – unsurprisingly, given he’s expected to start on the bench.

Check out the full list of first goalscorer odds, thanks to PlayUp.

All odds are correct as at 2pm (AEST) on Friday, September 23.

As always, stay on The Roar tonight for live scores and commentary, video highlights and the best post-game analysis going around.

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